The 15th five-year plan for a national response to climate change is the latest in a series outlining detailed climate and energy targets for 2026-2030.
These targets are supported by five-year plans for “building a Beautiful China,” developing a “new-type energy system,” and expanding renewable energy. Separate action plans for 2026-2030, such as those for peaking carbon emissions, are also included.
China has pledged to peak its emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060. The new plan does not introduce major new targets but consolidates and reaffirms existing policies.
Despite this, the plan sends important signals on key policy areas, including non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gases, global climate governance, and carbon markets.
The Ministry of Ecology and Environment (MEE) released the plan in late July, alongside 18 other government departments, including the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the National Energy Administration.
The document addresses a wide range of topics, such as CO2 emissions, other greenhouse gases (non-CO2 GHGs), carbon markets, carbon footprints, climate adaptation, and international cooperation on climate change.
For the first time at the five-year plan level, the plan establishes a comprehensive target system covering all areas of climate policy, according to MEE officials. They describe it as “the main policy instrument” for advancing China’s climate action from 2026 to 2030.
China rarely issues high-level, multi-year policies dedicated to climate change. In 2014, the NDRC published a plan through 2020, but it was not tied to a five-year plan period.
Qin Yan, principal analyst at ClearBlue Markets, states that the plan demonstrates China’s climate governance has reached “an unprecedented strategic level.” She notes that it creates an “all-encompassing target system” to support China’s Paris Agreement pledges for 2030 and 2035.
In its 2030 pledge, China aimed to peak emissions “before 2030” and reduce carbon intensity—emissions per unit of GDP—by more than 65% from 2005 levels. Last year, President Xi Jinping announced China’s 2035 pledge to cut greenhouse gas emissions to 7-10% below peak levels by 2035, while “striving to do better.”
According to researchers at CIB Research, an economic research body affiliated with the Industrial Bank, the five-year plan marks a new phase in China’s climate policy. Their analysis suggests the plan represents a broad effort to strengthen China’s climate governance system, implementation mechanisms, and underlying capacity.
However, several headline targets and policies in the document reiterate already established plans, including:
- Cutting carbon intensity by 17% over five years
- Reducing carbon intensity per product in industries under China’s carbon market by 3%
- Substituting fossil fuels with renewables
- Strengthening climate adaptation
- Supporting the “free flow” of cleantech
The plan also details China’s approach to non-CO2 GHGs, reaffirming a target to reduce emissions from these gases by 30 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent (MtCO2e) by 2030, though the baseline is unclear. This target appeared in previous plans, including the one for building a “Beautiful China.”
According to Chen Meian, programme director and senior analyst at the Institute for Global Decarbonization Progress (iGDP), the goal refers to emissions reductions achievable through current non-CO2 reduction policies and projects. She notes that increasing coal-mine methane utilisation projects could contribute significantly.
An MEE explanatory note for a draft methodology under the China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) scheme suggests that projects using ventilation air methane and coal-mine methane with concentrations below 8% could deliver around 20MtCO2e of reduction by 2030. Currently, such projects are estimated to generate annual emission reductions of approximately 4.5MtCO2e.
Chen adds that measures targeting industrial nitrous oxide (N2O) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) could help achieve the remaining reductions needed to meet the target.
According to iGDP analysis of China’s biennial reports to the UNFCCC, China emitted around 14,000MtCO2e of GHGs in 2021, excluding land use, land-use change, and forestry (LULUCF). Non-CO2 GHGs accounted for about 2,700MtCO2e, or 19% of the total, with methane as the largest share.
China’s plans to curb these super-pollutants during the five-year period include coal-mine methane utilisation projects, end-of-pipe destruction technologies for HFCs, and guidance on using catalysts to reduce N2O emissions. The plan also calls for the recovery and replacement of sulphur hexafluoride (SF6) in power equipment.
Chen highlights the plan’s focus on SF6 control as particularly significant, noting that the gas is “finally receiving policy attention” and that proactive action is “timely and will help avoid future emissions growth” as China’s power system expands.
One of the plan’s clearest objectives for international cooperation is for China to play a more active role in global climate governance. By 2030, China aims to significantly increase its “influence, guiding power, shaping power, and moral appeal” in this area.
The plan states that China’s climate action could contribute to the Global Governance Initiative, which seeks to reform the global governance system. China also aims to “build a new narrative on climate governance.”
Professor Thomas Hale of the University of Oxford’s Blavatnik School of Government writes that the plan “marks a major rhetorical shift” toward China being more willing to “lead and shape” global climate action.
Another key area for international cooperation is carbon markets. The plan calls for China to expand the global influence of its carbon market through international rule-setting, cooperation on standards, and by hosting the China Carbon Market Conference.
Qin notes that China’s more active role in global carbon pricing is already evident in the launch of the open coalition on compliance carbon markets with the EU and Brazil. This coalition is expected to adopt a work plan at the China Carbon Market Conference in September.
Qin also observes that China “could become the world’s largest [carbon] offset buyer” as its energy transition advances. The country would therefore “benefit from helping shape global rules under the Article 6 framework [for carbon trading under the Paris Agreement],” she adds.
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