EVs are a powerful tool for ending oil dependence, as European oil imports are projected to reach €300 billion in 2026, including an €80 billion oil crisis premium.
If Europe maintains its commitment to electric vehicle adoption, it can close the gap with China before 2030 and significantly reduce oil use in transport, according to new research from T&E. In 2020, the EU and China had similar EV sales shares, but weaker European car CO2 standards after 2022 allowed China to pull ahead. Stronger targets set for 2025 have now put the EU only three years behind, the analysis finds. With seven out of ten EVs sold in Europe being manufactured locally, a faster transition can help secure the future of Europe’s auto industry.
As Europe faces another energy shock, oil prices exceeding US$100 per barrel have led to higher costs for motorists. T&E’s new State of European Transport report highlights that, with the right policies, Europe can reclaim leadership in clean technology and quickly reduce its reliance on imported oil. Europe’s 8 million electric cars are expected to cut oil consumption by around 46 million barrels in 2025.
William Todts, Executive Director of T&E, stated, “EVs are the super-lever for ending Europe’s dependence on imported oil. The industry narrative that we are too far behind China and must weaken car CO2 regulation to compete is fundamentally wrong. Regulation is not the problem - it keeps Europe in the race to lead on battery electric cars. We need to accelerate, not capitulate.”
The State of European Transport report shows that carbon emission reductions from transport have stalled. Countries with high EV sales, such as Denmark and the Netherlands, are achieving significant cuts in vehicle carbon pollution, but this progress is offset by rising emissions in countries like Spain, where EV sales remain low. Slow EV adoption prolongs Europe’s oil dependence.
China is advancing rapidly in cleantech and electrification, producing 60% of the world’s electric cars and maintaining battery production twenty times greater than Europe’s. Meanwhile, Europe’s battery industry is evolving, with European and Chinese companies joining South Korean firms to expand battery production in the EU. The right policies and investment can unlock Europe’s vast potential to grow its battery sector.
Todts concluded, “The State of European Transport sends a clear message. Europe’s Green Deal is a roadmap for the cleantech economy of the future and a blueprint for enhancing European security by reducing oil imports. Yet, it faces opposition from automakers focused on short-term profits rather than long-term security and sustainability. The EU must resist pressure to weaken regulation further.”
Last week, Waymo stated, “Waymo has released new data indicating that the Waymo Driver continues to make roads safer in the places in which we operate.”
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The Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) has consistently advocated for a softer mandate since the targets were published in 2024.
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